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OVERVIEW
Netflix: Streaming Giant Scales Up with Gaming, Margin Growth, and Global Reach

Netflix ($NFLX) continues to extend its lead in the streaming industry, ending 2024 with 302 million global subscribers and $39 billion in annual revenue—a 16% increase year over year. In Q4 alone, the company added 19 million paying users, outpacing competitors like Disney+, Apple TV+, and HBO Max.

Wall Street has taken note. J.P. Morgan recently reaffirmed its bullish outlook with a $1,150 price target, while Bernstein set a $1,200 target, citing strong subscriber momentum, expanding margins, and disciplined content investment.

Netflix has also invested heavily in infrastructure to support future growth. Its proprietary Open Connect content delivery network—18,000 servers across 175 countries—is now being upgraded to support cloud gaming. Currently in beta across eight countries, the company is testing games like Oxenfree and Centipede: Recharged, with a long-term goal of bringing console-quality games directly to smart TVs.

Key Financial & Operating Highlights:

• 📈 Revenue (2024): $39 billion, up 16% YoY

• 👥 Subscribers: 302 million as of Q4 2024

• 💰 Operating Margin: Rose from 13% in 2019 to 27% in 2024; targeting 29% in 2025

• 🔄 Free Cash Flow: $6.9B in 2024, projected $8B in 2025

• 📊 EPS Growth Forecast: 22.6% CAGR over the next 3 years (consensus)

• 🖥️ Platform Usage: 8.2% of daily U.S. TV viewing time (Feb 2025, Nielsen)

• 🏷️ Forward P/E Ratio: 38.6 (above trailing two-year average)

• 💡 Content Strategy: Focused on regional hits and one-off global events rather than costly sports rights

Netflix's business model benefits from fixed infrastructure and scalable digital delivery. As subscriber count rises, marginal costs remain low—allowing profitability to grow faster than revenue. Analysts point to the company’s cost discipline (including password-sharing crackdowns) and global scale as drivers of margin expansion.

Historically, Netflix (NFLX) has been one of the market’s top performers, with shares returning over 80,000% since its IPO in 2002. This impressive growth would have turned a $1,250 investment into over $1 million by 2025. While it's unlikely that such gains will continue at the same pace, the company's ongoing evolution signals potential for new growth opportunities. Currently, NFLX is in a clear contraction on the daily chart, suggesting that we may be witnessing the beginning of another leg higher.

With its goal of reaching 400–500 million global users, Netflix is actively expanding beyond just entertainment, positioning itself as both a media and tech platform. This strategic shift could open up additional avenues for growth, potentially propelling the company to new heights in the coming months & years.

MARKET
The Strongest Day In Months

The market has finally shown some genuine structural improvements, with a strong push across various market groups, from small to mega-cap stocks, all moving into the green. We're also seeing growth stocks start to make significant moves, with major breakouts happening in key sectors that had been underperforming, including financials, technology, and consumer discretionary. These areas, which had struggled throughout 2025, are now starting to catch up with the broader market rally.

The rally in U.S. stocks on Monday was largely driven by reports that President Trump's tariffs might be less widespread than originally feared. This news, along with his comments about potentially offering "breaks" to certain countries regarding reciprocal tariffs, provided clarity and fueled investor optimism. The uncertainty around tariffs had been a major catalyst for the sell-off over the past month, and with this newfound clarity, the market has shown signs of bouncing back.

For traders, this presents a clear opportunity to position for a potential rally, but it's important to stay cautious and not force positions. We’re seeing growth stocks finally break out, which signals that the tide may be turning in favor of risk-on sectors. However, given the recent volatility, it’s essential to watch for confirmation before committing to longer-term positions.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq, as seen through both the QQQ and QQQE, looks very constructive. The QQQ has pushed above its point of control (POC) but is now facing resistance from the overhead supply, as shown by the VRVP just above its declining 20-EMA. This will be a tough area to break through. Similarly, the QQQE is nearing a test of its dense supply zone, which aligns with its POC. Both indices experienced structural breakouts yesterday, indicating positive momentum.

However, one concerning aspect is that the relative volume on the QQQ push was relatively low, which typically isn't the most confidence-inducing sign. On the other hand, the QQQE showed much higher relative volume, suggesting that the typical leaders—the mega-caps—are not currently leading this rally. This is actually not a bad thing; in fact, it may be a healthy sign.

We need to keep an eye on the overhead supply levels for both the QQQ and QQQE. If these levels are taken out, and we start to see a meaningful breakout, it would shift us into full risk-on mode. This would signal that the market is likely ready to push higher with more conviction, and we’d want to be prepared to act quickly.

S&P Midcap 400

The midcaps’ structural breakout is definitely noteworthy, but we need to approach this with a level of nuance. The low relative volume—about half of the prior session's—is a potential red flag, but not a deal-breaker. It's crucial to remember that volume can sometimes be a lagging indicator, and price action speaks volumes in its own right. Here, we saw a strong push higher, and more importantly, the test of the 20-EMA was met with aggressive buying, which indicates that there’s still demand despite the lower volume.

Russell 2000

The small caps are exhibiting a similar strength to the larger caps, but the key takeaway is how the buyer aggression is showing up in the price action and VRVP rather than the typical volume spikes. When you look at the VRVP, the fact that the profile is predominantly green suggests that buyers are consistently absorbing the sell orders and pushing the price higher. This indicates that there’s substantial demand in this segment, even if the raw volume numbers are not particularly high.

What's important here is that these stocks are pushing higher into a region where the overhead resistance is weakening. With strong buyer activity showing in the profile, it suggests that we're seeing sustained interest and potential accumulation at these levels. This is a healthy sign because it means the market is building higher without being overly reliant on one big spike in volume.

DAILY FOCUS
Don’t Hesitate: Trust Your System

Today, the market is presenting a rare opportunity with structural improvements across the board. Key growth sectors like financials, technology, and consumer discretionary are showing actionable setups, and there are clear breakouts happening. However, the temptation to second-guess yourself can be strong, especially in this volatile environment. The hardest challenge for many traders is fighting the urge to overtrade during choppy, indecisive markets.

It’s easy to get caught in a cycle of waiting for too much confirmation, watching key stocks break out, and then scrambling to get in once the move has already started. By the time you act, the best opportunities may have already passed. And when the market turns, you’re left with positions in lagging stocks, starting to doubt your decisions. Then, when the leaders finally break out, you're either hesitant to act or trying to recover from previous losses.

What you’re really facing here is the danger of overtrading—chasing moves or waiting for that elusive perfect confirmation. This is one of the most detrimental cycles a trader can get caught in. The market doesn’t reward hesitation. It rewards those who are decisive and who can recognize an opportunity and act quickly.

Here's what to focus on:

1. Volume Confirmation: We’ve seen some solid breakouts across key sectors, but volume hasn’t fully supported these moves yet. If you’re looking to enter, pay attention to relative volume. A strong 5-minute opening range breakout with high relative volume can be your cue. Don’t wait for perfect conditions—act when your setup aligns with your system, not when you have every single confirmation.

2. Short-Term Trends: The market is in a short-term uptrend, but remember, trends don’t reverse overnight. If you’re hesitant about entering on a breakout, assess it based on risk/reward. Don’t feel the need to catch the top of a move. Wait for pullbacks to strong support levels if necessary. Patience here can lead to more favorable entries.

3. Position Sizing: Keep your position sizing in check. The market is presenting opportunities, but don’t let the excitement cloud your judgment. Follow your system’s rules to manage risk. Overcommitting early, especially during volatile breakouts, can leave you exposed if the move fades.

4. Avoid Emotional Decisions: Positive market developments can stir up a sense of urgency, but don’t let FOMO take over. If a setup doesn’t meet your criteria, hold off. Resist the urge to jump in when you’re not fully confident. Your best trades come when you act with clarity and confidence, not out of emotional impulse.

5. Sector Rotation: Stay ahead of sector rotation. Financials, technology, and consumer discretionary stocks are showing strong potential, but be cautious. Don’t chase stocks just because they’ve already moved—wait for confirmation of sustained strength and enter strategically.

WATCHLIST
Today’s Potential Play

SATL: Satellogic Inc.

• SATL has been consolidating sideways for the last month, building a solid base after its major rally in late 2024, where it surged an impressive +430% in just two weeks. Since then, the stock has shown notable resilience, holding these levels and creating a series of higher lows over the past 3-4 weeks, even as the broader market was experiencing downward pressure.

• This shows significant relative strength and suggests the stock could be gearing up for another move. Given the explosive nature of SATL’s past rally, combined with its multi-month base and the overall upward momentum we’re seeing in the broader market, this aerospace and defense stock could be setting up for a major breakout.