OVERVIEW
Strength Where It Matters Most

🟢 Risk-On: Mega-cap tech leads, breadth stabilizing, and no breakdowns across leading names.

🧭 Macro Calm: Geopolitics cooling off, jobless claims steady- nothing in the data suggests cracks.

📈 Index Divergence: QQQ pushing highs while small/midcaps consolidate. Focus on what’s working.

📌 What to Watch: Follow-through in MDY/IWM into low-volume zones. Keep leaning into strength, but avoid chasing breakouts. Let pullbacks give you better entries.

MARKET ANALYSIS
The Market Just Keeps On Climbing

Markets continue to digest a steady stream of noise- but beneath it all, the bigger picture is remarkably calm. There’s been no new escalation in the Middle East following the announced ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While Trump has made statements suggesting both sides are pushing boundaries, the ceasefire itself appears to be holding. This has kept geopolitical risk firmly in the background.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic data remains constructive. Initial jobless claims came in at 236,000 below expectations and pointing to a labor market that’s cooling without cracking. It’s not strong enough to trigger fears of rate hikes, nor weak enough to signal a slowdown. That’s exactly the type of “goldilocks” setup that supports continued equity upside.

With no major earnings, no Fed speakers scheduled, and no fresh macro shocks on deck, we see little reason why equities can’t continue grinding higher—especially as leading stocks hold trend and breadth remains constructive.

This is what early-stage bull markets look like: disbelief, apathy, and a slow melt upward.

Nasdaq

The QQQ broke out to new all-time highs again yesterday, clearing the well-flagged grey supply zone that had capped price since early June. That’s a meaningful technical development.

But the breakout is happening on declining relative volume- and that’s something to keep in mind. When participation drops as price rises, it opens the door for short-term pullbacks or failed breakouts.

Still, this is the leading group for a reason. Megacap tech continues to drive the rally, and QQQ’s outperformance versus midcaps and small caps is stark.

S&P 400 Midcap

Unlike QQQ, MDY couldn’t push higher yesterday and instead it’s pulling back toward its Point of Control (POC) after a third clear rejection near $563. That level remains the final dense supply zone on the visible range volume profile.

What’s notable is what’s above: a low-volume pocket stretching from $563 to $580. If MDY can break through, that zone could fuel a fast move higher.

The good news is that the relative volume on the pullback has been low, suggesting the selling wasn’t aggressive. The rising 10-day EMA and POC are holding for now.

Bottom line: Still very constructive, but we need confirmation above $563 to unlock the upside potential. Until then, stay selective and likely avoid aggressive exposure here.

Russell 2000

IWM, like MDY, got rejected at its final dense supply layer near $215 which is no surprise given how closely mid and small caps move in tandem.

But here’s the key distinction: Relative volume on the rejection was much lighter than we’d expect if real distribution were taking place. That’s a good sign. Heavy volume into a failure would suggest bigger trouble and this looks more like controlled digestion.

Structurally, we remain constructive. IWM is still holding the rising 10-day EMA and remains inside its low-volume zone.

🔑 Key: This is not the leading segment right now — but it’s not breaking down either. Stay focused on the leaders, but keep an eye on when small caps start catching up.

🧠 Mindset Check: Spot the Divergence

Here’s your challenge today: Be a detective.

Everyone sees that the QQQ is pushing higher, breaking out, leading the charge. But IWM and MDY? They’re stuck in chop or outright rejecting at resistance.

So what gives?

This is where you zoom in and start asking the right questions:

• What does QQQ actually represent?
  It tracks the Nasdaq-100-primarily large and mega-cap technology stocks.

• Is QQQ equal-weighted?
  No- it’s capitalization-weighted. That means the biggest companies have the biggest impact.

• So which names are really driving QQQ right now?
  Look under the hood. It’s names like NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, etc- mega-cap growth names.

• Are those names breaking down?
  No. In fact, most of them are breaking out or pulling back into support on light volume.

This is the detective work required to trade well. Don’t treat indices as monoliths, dissect them. The divergence between QQQ and the rest of the market is not random. It’s signaling where the true demand is flowing: mega-cap tech.

And that leads to a critical insight: If you're not exposed to the leaders, you're not actually participating in the strength.

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FOCUSED STOCK
MSTR: Bitcoin Proxy Gearing Up

We’ve seen sustained strength in the Bitcoin space, with a multi-week consolidation underway and that puts MSTR firmly on our radar.

Yes, it’s shown some relative weakness recently, but that matters less when the driver is Bitcoin itself. MSTR is a leveraged proxy for BTC, and BTCUSD is still sitting in a bullish structure, finding support on its rising 10-week EMA.

MSTR has formed a clean range along its rising 50-day EMA, and yesterday’s bounce from the Point of Control shows demand stepping in exactly where it should. We’re watching for potential contraction into support, if it holds, a breakout attempt becomes far more actionable.

FOCUSED SECTOR
COPX: Supply Squeeze Fuels Breakout

The copper market is flashing some of the strongest tailwinds we've seen all year — and this time, it's not just sentiment. It's a real-world supply crunch now spilling into price action:

📉 Inventories Collapsing:
LME copper warehouse stockpiles have dropped ~80% this year. Global copper supply now covers less than one day of demand- that's the tightest we've seen in a long time.

📈 Squeeze in Play:
Funds were heavily short copper, expecting a slowdown. But with inventories vanishing, those traders are being forced to buy back- triggering a classic short squeeze.

🇨🇳 China Complicating It:
Chinese smelters have been offloading refined copper into the market to offset their own hedges. That’s offered temporary relief, but it’s now threatening domestic supply inside China, which may fuel a second leg higher.

🧾 Tariff Premium Risk:
The U.S. is reportedly considering tariffs on copper imports. Buyers are front-running that risk- snapping up supply and widening the price gap between U.S. and London benchmarks.

💰 Spot Dislocation = Opportunity:
Copper is trading more than $1,000/ton higher in the U.S. than in London. That arbitrage is adding pressure to global spot markets and giving pricing power back to miners.

📊 Price Action Confirms It:
COPX (the global copper miners ETF) just broke out of its multi-week base with volume. This isn’t speculative- this is the tape showing us money is flowing in ahead of what's likely a longer-term squeeze narrative.

⏱️ What to Watch:
If COPX holds its breakout and copper futures (HG) continue pressing above their March highs, the next leg could be sharp. The top copper miners are where rotation is happening in real time so don't wait for the headlines to catch up.

Q&A
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