MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What You Need To Know

• Futures are modestly higher in S&P and Nasdaq while the Dow lags, reflecting continued dispersion across index components rather than broad risk-on behavior. This is consistent with the rotation tape we’ve been tracking rather than a synchronized trend move.

• The Fed meeting is the dominant macro event risk for the week. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but forward guidance on the timing of cuts is the real market-moving variable. Equity multiples remain sensitive to any shift in the rate path narrative.

• Earnings volume is accelerating materially, with over 90 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Mega-cap tech reports (META, MSFT, TSLA, AAPL) will disproportionately drive index-level volatility and could reinforce or challenge the recent stabilization in the Magnificent Seven complex.

• Policy risk still remains elevated with new tariff announcements targeting South Korea add to the ongoing theme of trade policy volatility, which continues to act as a regime driver for sector dispersion and currency moves rather than outright equity crashes.

• The potential U.S. government shutdown adds tail risk, but markets are currently treating this as a headline risk rather than a systemic macro shock. Unless funding negotiations materially tighten financial conditions, this remains noise for equity structure.

• The dollar remains under pressure amid speculation around coordinated FX intervention and global reserve diversification. A weaker dollar mechanically supports commodities and EM assets while complicating the rate-sensitive equity narrative.

• Macro data remains mixed but stable with growth indicators such as durable goods and activity indexes near trend, reinforcing the current “no recession, no overheating” macro regime that supports range-bound equities and sector rotation rather than sustained index trends.

• Capital spending tied to AI infrastructure remains a dominant secular driver, highlighted by continued multi-decade investment commitments from semiconductor and data center supply chain players. However, markets are increasingly differentiating between infrastructure winners and narrative-driven names.

Nasdaq

53.46%: over 20 EMA | 57.42%: over 50 EMA | 59.40%: over 200 EMA

• Looking at the NASDAQ via QQQ, we technically broke above the 10- and 20-day EMAs and cleared the 622–625 supply band.

• This morning’s gap is pushing price toward the January 15 highs near 630, effectively back into the upper end of the multi-month range.

• The problem is participation as yesterday’s breakout printed on 66% of 20-day relative volume, and volume has been declining since the January 21 bounce off the rising 20-week EMA.

• That’s not what you want to see on a range breakout as this is price leading volume, not the other way around. Structurally, that increases the probability this move is a liquidity sweep rather than a sustainable expansion leg.

• Best-case scenario for bulls is a gap fill back toward 625, followed by a high-volume reclaim. Without that, this looks vulnerable to a fast shakeout, especially with mega-cap earnings and macro catalysts hitting over the next 48–72 hours.

• The weekly structure is still constructive (tight contraction), but the short-term tape is fragile.

• The equally weighted NASDAQ continues to be the cleaner chart. QQQE pushed to fresh all-time highs, and relative volume came in above 100% of the 20-day average.

• That tells you the breadth inside the NASDAQ is healthier than headline mega-cap charts suggest.

• This is important as the NASDAQ weakness narrative is largely a mega-cap weighting issue, not broad participation. If QQQE holds above breakout levels, that materially reduces the probability of a deeper NASDAQ drawdown.

• That said, the same event-risk caveat applies and so chasing a gap at ATHs into earnings week is structurally poor asymmetry.

S&P 400 Midcap

62.81%: over 20 EMA | 71.60%: over 50 EMA | 66.83%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps did what we expected as it mean-reverted toward the 10-day EMA and are starting to lose momentum. The weekly chart shows clear deceleration after a strong run from the November 17 bounce off the 50-week EMA.

• If we lose the 10-day EMA, the next magnet is the 20-day EMA around 629 (~0.8% lower). That’s a standard reset and the bigger point here is positioning as mid-caps have been the best long trade for two months and so crowding risk is now real.

• If capital rotates back into NASDAQ growth, mid-caps are the natural source of liquidity although the intermediate trend remains Stage 2, in the short-term we expect volatility and some digestion.

Russell 2000

62.11%: over 20 EMA | 67.28%: over 50 EMA | 66.20%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps are showing the same behavior with some supply at recent highs, momentum cooling, and a likely test of the 20-day EMA (~1.3% lower). That move is roughly one ADR and entirely consistent with a healthy trend reset.

• Nothing in the structure suggests a regime change. Weekly trend remains firmly Stage 2.

• This is short-term mean reversion and the key takeaway here is that daily volatility ≠ weekly trend breakdown and often the traders who fail to zoom out will misread this as weakness rather than consolidation.

FOCUSED STOCK
CHYM: Regional Banking Bouncing Well

ADR%: 4.99% | Off 52-week high: -10.7% | Above 52-week low: +135.2%

• Chime is emerging as a relative strength outlier inside regional financials at a time when the broader group is attempting to stabilize.

• CHYM transitioned into a clear Stage 2 advance following the November impulse legs (Nov 3 and Nov 24), where the stock rallied ~50% in under two weeks.

• Since that impulse, price has moved into a controlled volatility contraction, printing higher lows and respecting rising 10- and 20-week EMAs. Volume has steadily contracted throughout this base, which is exactly what you want to see in a constructive continuation pattern.

  

  KRE VRVP Daily & Weekly Chart

• What makes CHYM particularly interesting here is the sector backdrop as KRE (regional banks ETF) recently pulled back but has begun finding support on its rising 20-day EMA.

• That suggests the regional banking complex is not in a breakdown, but rather in a digestion phase after a strong run and if KRE continues to stabilize and re-accelerate, CHYM is positioned as a potential leadership name within the group.

• From a trade-structure standpoint, there are two clear frameworks:

  • Failure scenario: A rejection below 27.50 opens a pullback toward the point of control (~4% downside).

  • That would represent a normal reset within the base and could offer a secondary long entry if volume contracts on the pullback.

  • Primary long asymmetry: A deeper pullback into the 50-day EMA / rising 10–20 week EMAs near ~25 would provide the highest R/R long setup.

  • That zone coincides with prior institutional demand and the Stage 2 trend support structure.

• As a recent IPO (June 2025), CHYM is still in the price discovery phase, which increases both volatility and opportunity.

• The current structure resembles an early cup-and-handle formation within a developing Stage 2 trend. Breakouts are low-quality here; pullbacks into rising averages are the trade.