NOTE
Quick update on yesterday’s missing email

Hey everyone!

Yesterday’s report didn’t go out because a major global Cloudflare outage took down large parts of the internet.

It was triggered by what appears to be the largest DDoS attack Cloudflare has ever faced, and it disrupted the email service we use to send the daily report- alongside services like Twitter, Disord, Spotify & Chat GPT.

The issue was external and completely outside our control as the report was prepared, but email delivery was unavailable worldwide.

Thanks for your understanding, and for being part of the team every morning!

Best wishes,

Swingly

OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Macro

• Pre-market slightly green, but this is oversold stabilisation, not real risk appetite; NVDA earnings tonight are the only catalyst that matters.

• Tech unwind remains global (US + EU + Asia), confirming AI-led sentiment deterioration, not an isolated US correction.

• Trend, volume and breadth all point to reactive markets where bounce attempts are low-probability and easily fail.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

• Steep decline rejecting directly at $597 POC on 145% volume, confirming real sell-side aggression.

• First break below 50-day EMA and 10-week EMA since the April–Oct run; character change confirmed.

• Thin VRVP pocket below $595 → fast downside risk, not a bottoming area.

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• 50-week EMA (~$571) defended, but daily push into $580 was rejected instantly.

• Daily trend remains weak with declining EMAs overhead; any pre-market strength = reactive bounce only.

• No edge long here — trend integrity only holds while 50-week EMA survives.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• Holding the 20-week EMA (~$233) by a thread but with four straight weeks of lower lows.

• Yesterday’s bounce had volume (155% RVOL), but every bounce keeps getting rejected at declining EMAs.

• Volume pocket down to $226 → clean path lower if support breaks.

Focused Stock: ARDX

• Tight VCP-style contraction along rising 10d/20d EMAs and 10-week EMA with volume drying up exactly as expected.

• Weekly structure clean: higher lows, rising EMAs, and zero distribution footprints.

• One of the only names maintaining true trend integrity while the broad market unwinds.

Focused Group: XLU (Utilities)

• Building higher lows for three weeks off the 50-day EMA — double-bottom structure forming at $88–88.50.

• Weekly defence of the 50-week EMA with price holding above rising 10/20-week EMAs → institutional accumulation.

• One of the few sectors not breaking down, making it a relative-strength standout.

MARKET ANALYSIS
When In Doubt, Just Sit Out

• This morning we are seeing pre-market slightly green (S&P +0.2% & Nasdaq +0.3%) after a four-day tech unwind, but this mostly appears like stabilisation flow after being oversold rather than any risk appetite returning.

• Nvidia earnings tonight are the entire macro driver; pre-market bounce in NVDA/PLTR/AVGO and the whole AI complex should be ignored until earnings pass as the risk is too high for a gap down tomorrow morning on naked risk.

• AI complex still generally under pressure with XLK –1.6% yesterday and tech + discretionary the worst sectors in November.

• Europe and Asia continue to track U.S. tech weakness lower, showing this is a global AI-led sentiment unwind, not just a U.S.-only correction which tells us this can easily spiral into a much bigger correction (we still don’t have enough clarity).

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 25.49% | % over 50 EMA: 34.31% | % over 200 EMA: 50.98%

• QQQ is in a steep, accelerating decline, rejecting directly at the $597 Point of Control on the highest-volume price of the entire two-month range and on 145% relative volume, confirming active sell-side aggression.

• Each test into the declining 10-day and 20-day EMAs is being sold immediately, showing mechanical downtrend behaviour and very little sign of buyer sponsorship on any timeframe beyond expected absorption.

• The daily candle looks balanced, but the underlying tape is not: QQQ was sold into at every bounce, with rising daily relative volume since 11 November, confirming that the breakdown is real flow, not thin liquidity.

• Price is now trading materially below the 50-day EMA for the first time since May 2025, which signals a character shift with the leadership complex (tech/mega-cap) no longer has trend support beneath it.

• On the weekly timeframe, QQQ is pushing below the 10-week EMA, something that also has never happened during the entire April → October leg. This indicates the first legitimate momentum degradation in the intermediary uptrend.

• Volume profile shows a thin liquidity zone beneath $595 down to around $58) where we see the next dense volume cluster om the VRVP alongside the rising 20 week EMA (-2.64% move).

• A low volume pocket means further downside can accelerate quickly if that area fails as the tape behaves like a market with no responsive buyers, only reactive sellers.

• This is not a bottoming location. Trend, volume, structure, and breadth all confirm that trying to time a reversal here is high-risk and low-probability.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 27.25% | % over 50 EMA: 29.75% | % over 200 EMA: 48.00%

• The 50-week EMA at ~$571 held perfectly yesterday, producing a clean demand response as this level has not failed once since the April 2025 trend reversal and remains the key intermediate-trend anchor.

• Daily chart reclaimed the 200-day EMA (~$573), but the push into $580 was immediately rejected with a long upper wick, showing sellers defending the former support-turned-supply zone.

• Premarket is also pushing higher, but this area ($580–585) still represents a potential reversal shelf; nothing here signals trend reversal, only reactive demand at a major long-term EMA.

• Trend traders have zero edge bottom-fishing here as the broader structure is still declining, and we need materially more evidence before treating this as anything more than a hold of higher-timeframe support.

• As long as the 50-week EMA holds, MDY maintains its intermediate-trend integrity, but the daily trend remains vulnerable and any long exposure taken here would be against a declining short-term momentum structure and especially before NVDA earnings tomorrow is an extremely risky play.

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 30.23% | % over 50 EMA: 32.13% | % over 200 EMA: 48.20%

• Still holding the 20-week EMA (~$233) by a thread, but the character is weak as this is the first meaningful test since the April 2025 up-leg, and the defence has zero momentum behind it.

• Yesterday’s bounce came on 155% relative volume, confirming reactive buying at support, but again the structure remains decisively bearish with four straight weeks of lower lows.

• Daily chart shows the same problem as SPY/MDY as every push into declining 10/20-day EMAs is sold immediately. Yesterday's intraday attempt to reclaim $236–238 failed on contact.

• VRVP highlights a volume pocket down to ~$226, meaning if the 20-week EMA breaks, price has no structural support until that level. Sellers have a clean path lower.

• Trend context matters as again just like the QQQ and MDY, the IWM is in a clear accelerating downtrend, with each bounce attempt occurring on weaker volume than the prior sell-offs which is a typical Stage 3 → Stage 4 transition.

• No edge in trying to time a bounce…this is exactly the type of environment where reactive buys get trapped. Until we reclaim declining EMAs on volume, there is zero trend-trader justification for exposure.

FOCUSED STOCK
ARDX: Pharma is Still King

ADR%: 5.40% | Off 52-week high: -14.3% | Above 52-week low: +81%

• RDX is contracting tightly along rising support on both the daily and weekly charts while its sector (Pharma) is breaking out on volume with exactly the conditions where VCP-style setups form before expansion.

• Price is pulling back orderly into rising 10-day and 20-day EMAs and sitting directly on the rising 10-week EMA which is the expected early-stage VCP structure.

• Volume is contracting on each pullback while selling pressure diminishes; demand shows up immediately when price touches the 10w.

• Weekly structure is extremely constructive with higher lows, rising EMAs, and no real distribution footprints.

• This is one of the very few names holding trend integrity while the broad market is unwinding.

  

  XPH VRVP Daily & Weekly Chart

• Remember: The entire Pharma sector is emerging as a leadership group while Tech/Growth unwind, giving ARDX a strong tailwind.

• XPH broke to new highs with expanding volume, clearing the $49–$50 supply zone decisively.

• The daily trend is clean: price riding above rising 10/20 EMAs with acceleration, not drift.

• Weekly chart shows a fresh breakout from a multi-month base with true accumulation.

• Relative strength vs SPY, QQQ, IWM is surging while most risk assets are breaking down.

FOCUSED GROUP
XLU: Why 3 Weeks of Higher Lows Matters

• XLU continues to build higher lows off the 50-day EMA, confirming persistent bid under every pullback and reinforcing the double-bottom structure forming between $88-$88.50

• Weekly chart shows a clean defence of the 50-week EMA, with price respecting trend structure and holding above rising 10- and 20-week EMAs, all which point to a strong sign this sector remains in institutional accumulation and is likely to break higher imminently.

• The volume profile shows dense demand below $88, and each dip into that area has been met with immediate absorption, but more importantly, utilities remain one of the few sectors not breaking down, making them a relative-strength standout in an otherwise weak broad-market environment.