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Don’t Get Too Excited Just Yet...

Alexander Green Reveals What Trump Plans for His Economic Comeback

Bill O'Reilly just interviewed investment expert Alexander Green, who revealed:

  • Why Trump's second term could dwarf his first

  • What new AI technology could amplify Trump's policies

  • How 6 specific stocks could soar under Trump's plan

Exposure Status: Risk Off

OVERVIEW
Market Relief or a Dead Cat Bounce?

U.S. stock futures dipped on Tuesday after two days of gains, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. While the market has attempted to stabilize, uncertainty remains high, and there’s little evidence to suggest the recent bounce is anything more than a short-term reprieve.

SPY Monthly Chart

From a broader perspective, the technical picture remains fragile. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly lost key levels, such as their 10-month EMAs, before managing to reclaim them—at least for now. However, with two weeks left in the month and trading volume on the monthly chart already running abnormally high, the battle for these levels is far from over. If this elevated volume continues without meaningful upside progress, it could indicate distribution rather than accumulation.

Beyond technicals, macro concerns remain front and center. Slowing economic growth and persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment, keeping investors on edge.

With the Fed’s decision approaching, the focus isn’t just on whether rates stay steady but on the broader message about economic conditions. Until there’s clearer guidance, uncertainty will likely dominate. And as retail traders, it’s crucial to stay aligned with institutional activity—if the biggest players aren’t committing aggressively, there’s no reason for us to jump ahead of them.

Nasdaq

QQQ VRVP Daily Chart

The Nasdaq continued its bounce in yesterday’s session, pushing higher into overhead supply and testing its declining daily 10-EMA and the 200-EMA—both of which have so far acted as resistance. Notably, price managed to reclaim the daily Point of Control (POC), a significant demand level we’ve highlighted in previous reports. This zone, marked by a dense volume cluster on the visible range volume profile, has historically been a key area for buyers and sellers to engage.

However, the concern here isn’t just price action—it’s participation. Friday’s bounce already came on relatively low volume, and yesterday’s follow-through was even weaker in terms of trading activity. This divergence suggests a lack of conviction behind the move. While some of this hesitation is expected ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, the overall picture aligns more with a low-volume relief rally rather than a meaningful shift in trend. If this dynamic continues, it raises the likelihood that the current move is the early formation of a bear flag rather than the start of a sustained recovery.

S&P Midcap 400

MDY VRVP Daily Chart

Midcaps outperformed their large-cap counterparts, with the MDY managing to reclaim its declining 10-day EMA. Volume ticked slightly higher following Friday’s bounce, but relative volume on both days remained low—far from the kind of exhaustion signal that would indicate sellers are stepping aside.

To some extent, this outperformance makes sense. Midcaps have taken a harder hit than large caps like the QQQ and SPY, so a relief bounce here isn’t unexpected. However, from a broader perspective, there’s still little to get overly excited about. We need more time, more participation, and stronger confirmation before considering this anything more than a temporary reprieve.

Russell 2000

IWM VRVP Daily Chart

Small caps followed the same pattern as the QQQ, with price pushing higher on declining volume—a textbook low-volume rally often seen in markdown phases, according to Wyckoff Logic. The IWM is currently facing rejection at a dense overhead supply zone, just above the daily 10-EMA and between the declining 20-EMA, as highlighted by the visible range volume profile (VRVP) on the right.

From here, a pullback and consolidation seem likely. However, whether this develops into a double-bottom reversal or a bearish pennant breakdown remains uncertain. Either way, it’s not a setup we’re looking to engage with until there’s more clarity.

DAILY FOCUS
Don’t Try To Outsmart The Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates steady this week, but that doesn’t mean the meeting will be uneventful. In fact, this decision carries more weight than usual—not because of what the Fed will do, but because of what it might signal about the future.

With recent stock market turmoil and growing concerns about the economy, investors will be laser-focused on any hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about where things are headed next. The markets have already lost trillions in value, largely due to uncertainty surrounding new economic policies, particularly tariffs and trade tensions. While the Fed’s official stance has been to stay patient, Powell’s tone and guidance will shape expectations for the months ahead.

Right now, the central bank has little reason to cut rates, given its previous stance that the economy doesn’t warrant further stimulus. However, markets are pricing in future rate adjustments, and if Powell hints at any shift in policy, volatility could ramp up quickly.

For traders, this means one thing—avoid making big bets based on assumptions. Trying to predict market reactions before a Fed decision is often a losing game. Instead, focus on how the market actually reacts after Powell speaks. If confidence returns and key levels hold, there could be opportunity. But if uncertainty lingers or deepens, staying cautious will be the smarter move.

Patience always wins in these moments. Don’t try to outguess the Fed or the reaction—let the market show its hand first, and then act.

WATCHLIST
Leading US Relative Strength Names

OKTA: Okta, Inc.

OKTA Daily Chart

  • OKTA has been a standout performer in recent weeks, managing to hold its post-earnings gap-up exceptionally well while finding consistent support on the rising 10-day EMA. This relative strength is especially notable given the broader market weakness, particularly in the tech sector, where most stocks have struggled to hold key levels.

  • That said, OKTA is not yet offering a clear trade setup from our perspective. The stock lacks the kind of price contraction that would signal a low-risk entry, and with the Fed rate decision tomorrow, no U.S. equities are particularly compelling right now.

  • However, this is one to keep on the watchlist. If we see a proper volatility contraction and the market shows real follow-through on its recent bounce, OKTA could become a strong candidate for future opportunity.

BE: Bloom Energy Corporation

BE Daily Chart

  • BE is shaping up to be one of the strongest setups in the market right now, demonstrating impressive relative strength despite broader weakness. The stock has been consolidating in a very structured manner, building a multi-month base while avoiding the breakdowns seen across much of the market. It briefly lost its 50-week EMA but has since reclaimed it convincingly, showing clear demand at key levels.

  • The volume profile is also notable, with a steady contraction that suggests accumulation rather than distribution. Unlike many stocks that have given back prior gains, BE has held its late 2024 gap-up, reinforcing its strength. Fundamentally, the company’s revenue growth continues to impress, adding another layer of conviction to its setup.

  • While the broader market remains uncertain, BE has simply been chopping sideways, setting the stage for a potential breakout if conditions improve. This is a name worth keeping a close eye on, as it could offer a high-quality opportunity when the time is right.

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This newsletter does not provide financial advice. It is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade assets or make financial decisions. Please exercise caution and conduct your own research.

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