OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Nasdaq (QQQ):

• Rebounded off 20-day EMA with buyers visible near $617 demand zone

• Still capped by resistance at $627; needs time to consolidate before any trend resumption

S&P 400 Midcap (MDY)

• Bounce came on strong volume but faded sharply from the $596 POC zone.

• 20-week EMA at $584 remains critical structural support separating digestion from breakdown

Russell 2000 (IWM)

• Second defense of 50-day EMA confirmed with expanding volume and better follow-through

• Still a one-day bounce until proven otherwise — structure remains range-bound and choppy

Focused Stock: EGO (Eldorado Gold)

• Strong defense of 20-week EMA with breakout above 10-day EMA on +130% volume

• Light-volume pocket above supports potential gap fill toward $28–$29

Focused Group: Healthcare (XLV)

• Confirmed Stage 2 uptrend with constructive rhythm around rising 20-day EMA

• Rotation into the group building strength; resistance remains at $146–$148 before next leg

MARKET ANALYSIS
Exactly The Bounce We Needed

• AI trade cooling: The market’s still trying to digest whether this week’s weakness in Nvidia, Palantir, and Qualcomm marks a healthy reset or the early stages of a broader unwind. Valuations are stretched, positioning remains heavy, and sentiment has turned more two-sided.

• Event risk: Tesla’s shareholder vote today will likely dominate narrative, but not because of Musk’s pay, because the outcome could dictate whether large-cap momentum names remain the emotional anchor of this rally.

• Policy front: The Supreme Court showed signs of pushing back on Trump’s tariff expansion and if reversed, it could remove a tailwind for inflation and help global cyclicals.

• Macro backdrop: The U.S. government shutdown enters its 37th day, trimming growth at the margin and adding to near-term noise. Still, the 10Y yield easing to ~4.1% and a softer dollar (DXY sub-97) continue to support gold and crypto as liquidity proxies.

• Key takeaway: The market’s balancing two narratives- AI euphoria vs. policy relief, and so far neither has yet regained control. This is still a pause phase, not a pivot to get too exposed.

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 44.11% | % over 50 EMA: 49.01% | % over 200 EMA: 55.88%

• Reaction & structure: QQQ bounced off the 20-day EMA as expected but ran straight into resistance again around $627, the same level that capped Tuesday’s move.

• Short-term weakness: The 10-day EMA failed to hold, keeping short-term control with sellers. Volume was light at only ~89% of the 20-day average, underscoring hesitation.

• Key zone: There’s a notable gap between $616 and $614, aligning with the green demand box we’ve mapped. This area is extremely important to hold as the next layer of structural support.

• Volume profile: Last week’s high-relative-volume weekly green candle initially looked constructive, but the follow-through fade since then tempers that optimism and so far it’s not a clean continuation signal.

• Current response: We are, however, seeing demand stepping in near the $617 cluster, which aligns with a key visible range volume node on the weekly chart.

• Best-case scenario: Ideally, we see sideways consolidation here to absorb supply rather than another fast leg lower or higher. That would allow the trend structure to reset and rebuild strength for the next leg up.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 41.39% | % over 50 EMA: 34.16% | % over 200 EMA: 50.62%

• Reaction: MDY bounced on the highest volume since mid-October’s selloff, showing clear activity but much of that came from intraday rejection off the $596 POC zone, which capped the move.

• Candle character: Price faded more than 50% of the intraday advance, rejecting not only the POC but also the declining 10-week EMA, keeping the short-term tone cautious.

• Support structure: For now, the 20-week EMA at $584 continues to hold and this is what is separating healthy digestion from deeper intermediary trend failure. As long as price stays above it, the structure remains constructive.

• Risk note: We’d be very cautious chasing any intraday strength here as this tape has repeatedly punished range high entries (1-3 momentum bursts from rising weekly supports have worked well, trend trading on opening range high breakouts has been very weak).

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 43.98% | % over 50 EMA: 40.04% | % over 200 EMA: 54.83%

• Reaction: IWM bounced firmly off its 50-day EMA for the second time and this time holding gains and avoiding the large intraday fade that marked prior bounces.

• Short-term structure: Price did face rejection near the declining 10- and 20-day EMA cluster, a sign of lingering short-term weakness despite the bounce effort but sellers were not as aggressive.

• Volume tone: The expanding volume on the rebound stands out as a positive signal that aligns with a test of the 10-week EMA on the weekly chart.

• Context: Similar to the midcaps (MDY), this move looks more like a reaction within consolidation than a clean trend resumption. The structure remains choppy, not directional, and we’d stay measured here as yesterday’s broad market strength was encouraging, but this remains a one-day bounce. We need confirmation (follow-through, strong breadth, or leadership rotation) before committing capital.

FOCUSED STOCK
EGO: Gold & Silver Names Bouncing

ADR%: 4.26% | Off 52-week high: -14.2% | Above 52-week low: +99.3%

• Technical reaction: EGO continues to hold impressively above its 20-week EMA, with buyers defending that zone cleanly and momentum reasserting on expanding volume.

• Daily structure: Yesterday’s breakout reclaim above the 10-day EMA came with a notable volume expansion (+130% 20 day rel volume).

• Sector context: As a gold and silver miner, EGO sits in one of the strongest relative strength groups right now. The broader metals space has seen orderly, constructive pullbacks, with both gold and silver bouncing cleanly off their 10-week EMAs.

• Setup view: The reclaim of the 20-day EMA now puts the stock back in short-term momentum alignment. If this reclaim holds, a gap fill toward the $28–29 zone looks entirely feasible, given the light-volume pocket above (+7.5% expected move).

FOCUSED GROUP
XLV: The Unspoken Leaders

• Trend structure: Healthcare is now in a new Stage 2 uptrend, as confirmed by the weekly chart with with price holding above a rising 10-week EMA and buyers consistently defending dips after entering a major breakout in Sept 2025 from a year long downtrend.

• Daily alignment: The 20-day EMA is acting as a near-perfect rhythm line, with each pullback being absorbed constructively. We’ve established a multi-week rising channel supported by rising volume which is the hallmark of healthy accumulation.

• Volume–price behavior: Recent sessions show increasing volume on up-days, suggesting traders are actively rotating into the sector, confirming this rally as more than just a technical bounce.

• Overhead structure: That said, the visible range volume profile (VRVP) still shows notable overhead supply around the $146–$148 zone and so we’ll likely need some more digestion before a sustained breakout attempt which we see as very likely.

• Subsector dynamics: Within healthcare, pharma (XPH) continues to lag slightly (this is a much heavier weighting >30% of XLV is pharma), with overhead resistance keeping it contained near $49. Meanwhile, biotech appears stronger, showing superior momentum and relative strength versus the parent sector.