OVERVIEW
Healthy Pause, Strong Foundations

🟢 Risk-On: QQQ, IWM, and MDY all pulled back to rising 10-EMAs — and all found demand. No breakdowns, no failed structures — just textbook digestion after a multi-week move.

📉 Tariff Volatility Absorbed: Trump’s new tariff announcements caused a midday spike in volatility, but the reaction was controlled. Markets held structure and closed with strong demand off session lows.

📊 Breadth Holding Firm: Midcaps and small caps tested key levels and passed. Nasdaq leaders saw rotation, but the trend is intact. No leadership failures — just healthy reshuffling.

MARKET ANALYSIS
A Routine Pullback Amid Tariff Tensions

Markets pulled back across the board on Monday in what was ultimately a fairly orderly and expected digestion day.

Volatility picked up slightly midday after President Trump confirmed new tariff announcements, including 25% duties on Japan and South Korea and additional tariffs (ranging from 25% to 40%) on a handful of other countries.

While this caused a brief bout of selling, the pullback was controlled, and volume remained within normal bounds — no signs of panic.

The early session weakness was anticipated, as markets had opened lower following reports of new trade negotiations and tariff adjustments. The fact that this news was absorbed without any major technical damage reinforces the view that the market remains in a healthy consolidation phase.

Nasdaq

We all know the Nasdaq has been the engine of this rally, but it’s also where we’ve seen a lot of rotation down the risk curve recently — with some leaders being temporarily faded.

📊 What Happened:

• Yesterday brought a high relative volume pullback, but zooming out, the price action was just a minor blip in an otherwise powerful trend.

• The day closed with a red hammer candle, showing demand stepped in exactly where it needed to — another signal of strength beneath the surface.

🎯 What to Watch Today:
The ideal setup now would be tight consolidation just above the key moving averages. That would allow for a clean reset in risk-reward and could act as a springboard for the next leg higher later this week.

🧠 Big Picture Insight:
Intraday action can feel noisy, but this is why zooming out is essential. There’s nothing broken here — just a healthy check of momentum before potentially continuing higher.

S&P 400 Midcap

Midcaps also saw a healthy pullback yesterday — this time with a wider-range candle and long wicks on both ends, forming an indecisive doji that reflects a market weighing supply vs. demand at key levels.

📊 What Happened:

• MDY tagged overhead supply near $588, prompting profit-taking.

• The index then pulled back right to the rising 10-day EMA, where buyers stepped in and stabilized the move.

• Breadth remained stable, with no signs of internal breakdown — just digestion.

🎯 What to Watch Today:
These 10-EMA tests during uptrends are some of the most constructive reset patterns we can get. If MDY holds the 10-EMA again today and puts in a tighter range, it would set up the next leg higher cleanly.

🧠 Big Picture Insight:
Remember — context is everything. While the candle looked uncertain, the underlying behavior was classic trend digestion. No damage done here. We're still seeing a healthy uptrend supported by stable breadth and demand showing up at expected levels.

Russell 2000

As expected, IWM finally pulled back yesterday after an extended three-day push above its rising 10-day EMA — something that, as we noted in yesterday’s report, rarely sustains without some digestion.

📊 What Happened:

• The pullback came on higher relative volume, but that’s not a red flag.

• IWM hit dense overhead supply and paused — not failed.

• Buyers stepped in cleanly at the rising 10-EMA, showing that demand is still present where it matters most.

🎯 What to Watch Today:
We're likely to see an inside day or tight range session, which would be ideal. This allows the index to:

• Absorb recent gains

• Reset short-term conditions

• Build pressure for a potential continuation move later this week

🧠 Big Picture Insight:
This was not a character shift or breakdown — just a healthy pause in an extended move. If you’re scanning for breakout setups in small-cap leaders, don’t get shaken by yesterday’s red — this is exactly the kind of controlled digestion that creates stronger setups.

FOCUSED STOCK
APP: A Major Base-Building Below Trigger

• APP was one of the first tech leaders to break out in April, and after a healthy pullback in early June, it's now tightening into a textbook setup.

• We're seeing a clean volatility contraction pattern (VCP) forming just below the 10, 20, and 50-day EMAs, with the stock coiling along its point of control (POC) near $345.

• What makes this even more compelling is the low-volume shelf up to $370 (as shown on the VRVP), which could act as an air pocket if APP breaks through the $352–$356 zone.

• That range also aligns with dense resistance on the weekly chart, adding significance to a potential breakout.

• The rising 10- and 20-week EMAs are holding perfectly, and the weekly pattern is now showing clear signs of institutional accumulation.

✅ If APP clears $353–$356 on strong volume, we could see fast movement toward the $370 zone. This is a high-quality setup to keep on top of your watchlist today.

FOCUSED GROUP
URA: Uranium Heating Up Again

• Back in late May, uranium stocks exploded higher after Trump launched the “Manhattan Project 2”, a major policy push aimed at revitalizing nuclear energy.

• The URA ETF saw a huge spike in relative volume that week — a clear sign of institutional buying.

• Since then, price has drifted higher on declining volume, forming a textbook contraction right on the rising 20-day EMA and point of control (POC) — this is classic reset behavior before a second leg.

• Leading names like VST and SMR have already broken out and held gains, showing the move wasn’t a one-off.

✅ We’re watching URA closely for a clean breakout trigger — the volume profile and structure suggest the next move could come quickly.

The theme is real, the demand is there, and the technicals are aligned.

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