OVERVIEW
This Is The Time To Push

 🟩 Risk-On: The market continues to show exceptional resilience. Every dip over the past two weeks — whether triggered by tariffs, bond auctions, or stretched breadth — has been met with strong demand.

🚀 Leadership Reasserting: QQQ is holding its breakout zone, and mega-cap tech continues to lead. Midcaps (MDY) just posted their strongest volume thrust in months, and IWM has reclaimed key EMAs with strength.

🔑 Key Takeaway: This is the kind of environment where selective exposure pays. The trend is intact, rotation is healthy, and volatility is being absorbed. The leaders are telling the story — and that story is still bullish.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Fear Keeps Fizzling Fast: Bulls In Control

It seems the long holiday weekend only recharged momentum. Markets opened the week with strength after the latest tariff scare — once again — faded just as quickly as it emerged. The brief bout of fear we saw on Friday, following Trump’s surprise announcement of a 50% import levy on the EU, has now been neutralized.

On Sunday, Trump confirmed he would delay the proposed tariff to July 9 after a “constructive call” with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The message: negotiations are back on, and both sides want a deal.

But here’s the more important takeaway:

📌 Every pullback in the last two weeks — no matter the catalyst — has been met with demand.

1. Friday’s tariff shock? Bought.

2. The bond auction volatility? Bought.

Even when leadership briefly faded, the dip was orderly and found buyers exactly where it should have — at rising EMAs, POC levels, and dense VRVP zones.

Don’t overcomplicate this. The market remains structurally strong. Leaders are holding. Rotation is clean. Demand keeps stepping in at key technical levels. This is not what a weak tape looks like — this is classic constructive digestion in a strong uptrend.

Nasdaq

🚀 Holding the Line: QQQ is sitting right on top of its prior breakout zone — the Point of Control (POC) and the upper edge of last week’s consolidation. We haven’t cleared this resistance yet, but we’re coiled right beneath it — a classic setup for continuation.

🔍 Relative Volume Tells the Story: Since the breakout in late April, relative volume has been steadily increasing. That’s a strong signal — rising volume into higher highs means growing participation and demand. In other words, this isn’t just a melt-up — it’s supported by real positioning.

🌐 Blue Skies Above: If QQQ clears this zone with conviction, there’s very little overhead supply. That opens the door for a clean move to new all-time highs — which, in turn, would likely propel large- and mega-cap tech (the backbone of this market leg) into fresh upside runs.

🧠 Tip: Watch the behavior of the top-weighted names inside QQQ (e.g. NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META, etc). Their ability to hold trend during last week’s weakness and now re-accelerate is a major confirmation that leadership is intact.

S&P 400 Midcap

🔄 Deep Context: Yesterday’s surge in relative volume was the highest in over a month — and it came precisely on the tag of both the rising 10-day EMA and the now-rising 200-day EMA. That’s not a coincidence. It’s a signature of institutional support stepping in at key trend levels.

🧠 Volume ≠ Noise: Last week’s retracement looked sharp on the chart — but volume told the real story. Declining participation meant the pullback lacked conviction. Compare that with yesterday’s action: a sharp reversal backed by heavy volume. That’s fuel — and it confirms that buyers remain firmly in control.

🔍 Market Structure in Play: This is a textbook bull trend reset. Shallow pullbacks → low volume → surge off demand zones. We’re now watching for a push toward the Point of Control (POC) at $570. Above that level, the volume profile shows a low-resistance pocket — meaning momentum could accelerate.

🔑 Key Learning: Volume doesn’t just support price — it validates it. Every midcap breakout we’ve seen (December 2024, February 2025) has shared this exact signature: volume confirms velocity. Learn that pattern, and you’ll read structure much better and feel more confident next time.

Russell 2000

🔁 Strong Bounce: Yesterday’s session saw a surge in relative volume as IWM gapped up and retested its rising 10-EMA — and buyers stepped in hard. That’s a textbook sign of demand showing up where it needs to.

📏 Key Breakout Test: We’re now pressing into a critical zone — the 200-day EMA around $210, which also aligns with the descending resistance trendline dating back to December 2024.

🚀 What’s Next: A breakout above this zone would open up a low-volume pocket on the VRVP — and that gives IWM a clear runway toward $220+. If that level clears with volume, expect rapid upside.

🧠 Mindset Check: The Market Is a Pyramid, Not a Flat Line

Too many traders try to read the market from the top down — watching the S&P 500 or Nasdaq and assuming they “know” what’s going on. But real insight doesn’t start with indices. It starts with structure. Here’s how the pyramid works:

🔺 Level 1 — Leading Stocks:
This is the tip of the spear. The true market leaders are the first to break out, the first to get defended at support, and the last to sell off in weakness. They’re the “canaries in the coal mine” for both opportunity and risk. If they’re holding strong, the market is healthy — regardless of what SPY is doing. If they start breaking down on high volume, you’ve got your first warning shot.

🔺 Level 2 — Leading Groups & Sectors:
Groups of leaders form themes, e.g. Cybersecurity, quantum computing, blockchain, aerospace, Chinese tech — when you see many leaders clustering in one theme, that’s institutional capital at work. They move in herds, and you want to follow that herd — not guess what the Fed is thinking.

🔺 Level 3 — Indices:
The major averages — SPY, QQQ, IWM — are simply weighted reflections of what’s happening below the surface. By the time the index tells you something, the leadership already told you first.

This is why every morning we run both:

• Bottom-up scans: Looking for the strongest individual stocks showing price + volume patterns we trust (e.g., VCPs, accumulation, tight flags).

• Top-down sector scans: Finding the best-performing groups by relative strength and seeing where breakouts are clustering.

📌 Why It Matters: The best traders aren’t trying to predict what the market “might” do — they’re reading what leadership is already doing. That’s where edge lives. Not in reacting to SPY, but in anticipating market tone by tracking the behavior of the strongest names.

FOCUSED STOCK
LUNR: Intuitive Machines, Inc.

🌌 Aerospace Momentum: LUNR is part of the broader aerospace & defense (XAR) group — one of the strongest themes in the current market cycle.

🔁 Key Level In Play: Yesterday’s push came on high relative volume, but the $12.80 breakout level (which has rejected three times before) remains the barrier. Strong volume → weak close = caution.

👀 Breakout Criteria: If LUNR can hold recent gains and clear $12.80 with conviction, it could trigger a high-velocity breakout — but only if two conditions are met:

• A clear Opening Range High (ORH) breakout intraday

• A surge in relative volume on that breakout confirming real demand

Without both, the risk of a failed breakout (“paper cut”) is high. This is a name we’re actively stalking.

FOCUSED SECTOR
XLY: Consumer Discretionary

🔄 Holding Momentum: XLY has been one of the top-performing sectors in the last two weeks after the early May gap over the Point of Control (POC) at $199 — and critically, that gap has held.

📊 Strong Reclaim: Yesterday’s bounce off the rising 20-EMA and reclaim of the 10-EMA happened right at a dense VRVP volume cluster — classic support zone behavior.

🚧 What’s Next?: XLY is still rangebound, but the action is very constructive. A breakout over $219 would confirm continuation. Meanwhile, many of the top components inside XLY are showing strong leadership and breaking out already- this usually means XLY as a whole will follow.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you know if a stock overbought?”

A: The truth is… you don’t. Not reliably. Terms like “overbought” or “oversold” are often misleading. Stocks can stay overbought for weeks in strong uptrends — and trying to short based on RSI or MACD alone usually ends badly (unless you have a very specific style). What actually matters is price and volume — and how extended a move is relative to its prior behavior.

🧠 One method we like: We use Jeff Sun’s ATR (Average True Range) multiples from the 50-day EMA to gauge extension. When a stock is 6–8x its ATR away from the 50-EMA, odds of a pullback increase.

🛠️ How to manage an extended position:

• Scale out partial profits in the first 3–5 days post-breakout — lock in gains early.

• Move your stop to breakeven once the trade goes risk-free.

• Trail your stop using rising key EMAs (10, 20, or 50-day) depending on trend strength and timeframe.

💡Key Takeaway: Never try to guess tops or bottoms. Let price action, volume and volatility guide your exit. Stocks don’t fall just because they’re “too high” — they fall when demand fades and your entire job is to spot these shifts in momentum.

Want the full breakdown, trade reviews, and complete daily setups in real time?

That’s all inside Swingly Pro → see what’s included