OVERVIEW
We Won’t Go Up Every-Day

🟨 Moderate Risk-On: Market momentum remains strong, with tech stocks leading the way, but we're at an extended point, so caution is advised. Breakouts are holding, but near-term consolidation is a real possibility.

🔮 Sector Leadership: Tech and AI (NVDA, AMD) are pushing the market higher, but mid-caps are showing some signs of fading. This is a critical point for tech stocks to continue showing strength or risk a pullback.

🛑 Watch the Pullbacks: The market’s been moving fast, so avoid chasing moves without proper confirmation. Stay alert for volume spikes and ensure any new entries align with a strong market trend.

MARKET ANALYSIS
The Higher We Go, The Closer a Pullback Is

There’s no major new headline news in the macro environment, but recent developments around the chipmakers and AI trade are worth noting. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have made significant strides, with President Trump securing $600 billion in commitments from Gulf states. This includes a major boost for AI, as Nvidia and AMD have inked big deals in the region.

Nvidia will supply Saudi Arabia with 18,000 of its latest "Blackwell" chips for Humain, an AI startup backed by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. Meanwhile, AMD is teaming up with Humain for a $10 billion collaboration.

What’s crucial here? The AI and chip sectors are clearly seeing massive global demand, especially with the Middle East ramping up its tech infrastructure. As this plays out, it supports continued momentum in the broader market — especially within the tech and semiconductor space.

Nasdaq

• This is where the real strength has been. The Qs just posted a high relative volume day that pushed price cleanly above the point of control — now inching closer to all-time highs.

• The volume profile shows a key tailwind: overhead supply thins dramatically as we climb higher from here. Yesterday’s move also confirmed a breakout from the intraday bull flag formed on Monday.

• With several large and mega-cap tech names breaking out in unison yesterday (per our scans), momentum remains firmly in the bulls’ hands. Another push higher from here looks increasingly likely.

S&P 400 Midcap

• After a remarkably strong week, midcaps are starting to show some signs of exhaustion — especially into the close of Tuesday’s session, where MDY tapped into a heavy supply zone around $560.

• We suspect a period of consolidation is likely here — and frankly, it’s preferred. A straight-up rally would be fragile. What we want to see now is healthy price discovery: buyers and sellers actively exchanging shares, getting comfortable trading at these higher levels. That’s the foundation for a sustainable move higher.

Russell 2000

• Small caps are coiled just below their 200-day EMA, with a glaring low-volume pocket overhead on the visible range profile. In plain terms: if we clear the 200-day today, there’s air above — and a big breakout candle becomes very possible.

• But this level has history. It tends to chop traders up before resolving, so don’t get greedy or overexposed early.

• The key trigger? Volume. If we break out, watch that first hourly candle — price confirms direction, but only a relative volume surge confirms intent. That’s what institutions do when they commit.

• We’re in a newly established bull market. If we pause here to digest, that’s not bearish — it’s healthy.

FOCUSED STOCK
RR: Richtech Robotics Inc.

• Textbook multi-month volatility contraction. Volume had been steadily declining — classic base behavior — but accumulation is picking up. This morning, RR is breaking above its descending resistance trendline in premarket, clearing $2.35.

• This one has a high ADR% of +7.8%, making it prone to explosive percentage moves on a breakout. If this holds, we could see an exceptional thrust out of compression — exactly the kind of setup momentum traders hunt.

FOCUSED SECTOR
ICLN: Global Clean Energy

• ICLN has officially broken out of a major Stage 1 base and is now entering a clear Stage 2 uptrend. The past 4 sessions have seen strong price expansion on high relative volume — a textbook sign of institutional accumulation.

• This move also coincides with capital rotation out of oil & gas and into renewable energy, as clean tech regains momentum. With follow-through, this group could offer fresh leadership in the coming weeks.

Q&A
Got a trading question? Hit reply and ask!

Q: “How do you know how much to risk?”

Great question — and it’s one most traders get wrong.

The truth? You don’t manage risk for the trade you hope will work — you manage it for the streak that statistically will not.

We’ve modeled this across hundreds of Monte Carlo simulations, and the message is always the same:

🧠 With a 40% win rate — which is realistic for even top-tier swing traders — the probability of hitting 8+ consecutive losses in any 50-trade sample exceeds 50%.

That’s not a black swan — it’s math.

📉 So if you’re risking 3–5% of your account per trade, it’s not a strategy — it’s a countdown to ruin. A few wrong trades and your equity curve isn’t just bent — it’s broken.

Here’s how you survive:

🔹 Assume every trade is a loser. That’s your baseline.
🔹 Risk a fixed % of equity (≤1% is standard- we think even that is too high).
🔹 Size up only after sustained equity growth — not emotion.
🔹 Accept drawdowns as a structural cost of staying in the game- always use a structural trigger to determine a trend change (e.g. a rising moving average).

💡 The goal isn’t to avoid losses. It’s to make them irrelevant.

👇 What’s the biggest issue you face in your trading right now?

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