MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s What You Need To Know

• Markets are entering the new week under clear pressure as multiple crowded trades unwind simultaneously across equities, metals, and crypto.

• Futures across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow are lower following Friday’s sharp reversal, reinforcing that risk appetite remains fragile.

• The most important macro development is not a single headline, but the speed and violence of recent moves, which signals rising uncertainty rather than a clean directional shift.

• Precious metals have experienced a violent unwind after becoming extremely crowded trades.

• Gold briefly fell as much as 10% and silver collapsed over 30% in its largest single-day drop on record, confirming exhaustion rather than healthy profit-taking.

• These moves have rippled into broader markets, tightening liquidity and increasing short-term risk aversion.

• Crypto markets are echoing this stress, with Bitcoin breaking below $80,000 and extending its decline toward key long-term support levels.

• Forced liquidations have accelerated downside momentum, reinforcing that this is not an environment for dip-buying or bottom-fishing.

• The US dollar has rebounded sharply after being one of the most crowded shorts in January, adding further pressure to commodities and risk assets.

• A stronger dollar, combined with falling metals and crypto, is a classic signal of tightening financial conditions.

• Policy uncertainty has increased following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

• Markets view the pick as relatively hawkish, which has reopened debate around the future path of rates despite expectations for cuts later this year.

• This week also brings heavy event risk, with over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, including Amazon, Alphabet, AMD, and Palantir.

• Friday’s January jobs report adds another major volatility catalyst, particularly given how sensitive markets currently are to macro surprises.

• While geopolitical headlines around US–Iran de-escalation have provided brief relief in some global markets, they have not meaningfully improved risk sentiment in US equities.

Nasdaq

48.51%: over 20 EMA | 54.45%: over 50 EMA | 53.46%: over 200 EMA

• The NASDAQ is now trading at its lowest level in roughly two weeks after a sharp and aggressive sell-off.

• Relative volume began expanding on Wednesday, January 28th, as price broke down roughly 2.6% over three sessions, which confirms this move is not a simple bear trap.

• When price breaks lower on expanding volume, it typically signals real distribution rather than a false breakdown.

• The attempted breakout earlier in the week fully failed, with a sharp reversal on 142% relative volume and a breakdown below the 10-week moving average.

• While an intraday bounce or gap-fill higher is possible, the bigger issue remains supply overhead and extremely choppy price action.

• Thursday’s NASDAQ range was over 2.5%, more than double its average daily range, and the bullish hammer from that session was fully negated on Friday.

• This kind of expanding volatility makes bottom-fishing very risky unless you are strictly trading intraday.

• Weakness is not isolated to mega-cap tech, as the equal-weight NASDAQ also broke down aggressively.

• Although QQQE bounced near the 10-week EMA, a large overhead exhaustion range of roughly 1.8% remains between 105 and 107.

• Volume profile shows significantly more shares traded short than long above 106, highlighting heavy supply at recent highs.

• This confirms that selling pressure is broad across NASDAQ constituents, not just driven by a few large names.

S&P 400 Midcap

44.47%: over 20 EMA | 64.82%: over 50 EMA | 64.57%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps are holding up relatively well despite recent volatility.

• MDY rejected its point of control on Friday with very high relative volume and briefly broke below its 10- and 20-day EMAs.

• Price has since stabilized just above the 10-week moving average, which remains the most important level to monitor.

• On the weekly chart, mid-caps are still clearly in a Stage 2 uptrend that began with the November breakout.

• If further weakness develops, the most likely downside test sits near 619, which aligns with prior demand, the 50-day EMA, and the 10-week EMA.

• Given the current volatility, attempting to time a bottom is risky, and waiting for confirmation on the close remains critical.

Russell 2000

49.68%: over 20 EMA | 59.66%: over 50 EMA | 63.85%: over 200 EMA

• Small-caps continue to move largely in line with mid-caps, though with heavier selling pressure.

• Friday’s session saw roughly 150% relative volume on the daily chart and elevated volume on the weekly chart as well.

• Despite the sell-off, IWM remains above its 10-week moving average, which is the key level to defend.

• A test of the 255 area is likely, as there is a visible volume gap between Friday’s close and the 50-day EMA.

• As long as the 50-day and 10-week EMA hold, the broader Stage 2 structure remains intact.

FOCUSED STOCK
VRDN: A Leading Stock in a Leading Sector

ADR%: 4.36% | Off 52-week high: -3.8% | Above 52-week low: +233.3%

• Viridian stood out due to its behavior during Friday’s market sell-off.

• The stock dropped roughly 6% intraday, exceeding its average daily range, but found strong support at the rising 10-week moving average near 31.34.

• Buyers stepped in aggressively, producing a reversal hammer on 153% relative volume, the highest volume since December.

• This pullback occurred within a broader contraction following a powerful breakout above the 200-week moving average in November.

• Healthcare and pharmaceuticals remain among the most defensive and strongest sectors in the market.

• VRDN continues to show exceptional relative strength, with a 99 relative strength rating versus the S&P 500, marking it as a clear market leader.