OVERVIEW
What You Need To Know

Macro

• Earnings strong but narrow; AI + megacap still driving index strength.

• Fed dovish tilt + QT ending Dec 1 → liquidity tailwind into year-end.

• Policy + AI capex cycle still supportive (MSFT/IREN/NVDA flow confirms).

• November = historically strongest month → dip-buying regime, but selective.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

• Holding rising 10-EMA; buyers defending levels with volume.

• Tight contraction near highs, higher lows on hourly → momentum intact.

• Above $625 = risk-on; below = retest 10-EMA.

Midcaps (MDY)

• Still below POC + capped under resistance.

• Weekly base-building, but distribution signs & lagging breadth.

• Avoid until > ~$597–$600.

Small Caps (IWM)

• Holding demand but weak relative strength vs mega-cap tech.

• Rising weekly trend intact; multiple bounces off $240–244 zone.

• Not leadership

Focused Stock: PL

• True institutionally-accumulated leader

• V-shaped earnings pivot + low-volume pullback + rising 10-W EMA defense

• Tight coil under $14 → HTF breakout candidate

Focused Group: BOAT (Global Shipping)

• Reclaimed weekly POC + clean trend structure.

• Rising 10-W EMA support + shallow pullbacks.

• Quiet leadership in real-asset space

MARKET ANALYSIS
Mega-Caps Lead, Everyone Else Survives

• Earnings remain strong but narrow

  • ~80% of S&P companies have beaten expectations so far

  • Leadership still concentrated in mega-cap tech + AI, reinforcing narrow breadth risk

  • Q3 earnings continuation this week (PLTR, AMD, SMCI) and the market still reacting to AI guidance more than numbers

• AI capex + infrastructure cycle continues

  • Microsoft approved to ship Nvidia GPUs to UAE + expanding capex abroad

  • IREN signs $9.7B GPU supply deal with MSFT

  • Ongoing global AI chip arms race = sustained structural bid in semis / compute

• Policy backdrop remains supportive

  • Fed dovish tilt + QT ending Dec 1st = liquidity tailwind into year-end

  • Macro liquidity still supports risk-on, despite tactical weakness in breadth

• Government shutdown delaying hard data

  • Payrolls + other key prints postponed

  • ISM + PMI surveys take on outsized market importance this week

  • Expect headline-driven volatility spikes and as always, price confirmation > news reaction

• Seasonality tailwind

  • November is historically the strongest month for S&P (~+1.8% average return)

  • Typically a dip-buying month, but narrow leadership means selective execution

• Berkshire signals valuation caution

  • Operating earnings strong, but no buybacks + record $381B cash pile

  • Big money still sees elevated valuations and this confirms discipline > FOMO

• China gold policy shift triggers pullback

  • Removal of local retailer tax benefit → selling pressure

  • Healthy reset within a strong secular metals trend; aligns with miner accumulation setups

Nasdaq

% over 20 EMA: 51.96% | % over 50 EMA: 55.88% | % over 200 EMA: 55.88%

• QQQ continues to hold above the rising daily 10-EMA, keeping the momentum trend fully intact.

• Friday’s intraday dip produced a hammer reversal off Thursday’s lows showing buyers defended demand again.

• Volume came in at ~122% of 20-day RVOL, confirming participation on the pullback rather than distribution.

• Price is digesting near highs in a tight contraction, not losing structure and this remains constructive.

• We still have multiple breakaway gaps below from the recent thrust; in strong momentum phases these typically act as support emphasising very high momentum.

• Hourly chart continues to put in higher lows riding the rising 50-EMA.

• Clear double-bottom basing around $625 which is the key short-term pivot.

• As long as price holds above $625 and the rising hourly 50-EMA, the trend remains orderly with buyers in control.

• A clean break below $625 would invalidate the short-term structure and likely trigger a fast retest into the daily 10-EMA.

• Bias remains risk-on while price holds above the rising daily 10-EMA and hourly 50-EMA structure.

S&P 400 Midcap

% over 20 EMA: 37.90% | % over 50 EMA: 34.41% | % over 200 EMA: 50.87%

• MDY continues to lag and remains below both the daily and weekly POC (~$596.50), which keeps this group in a consolidation regime rather than leadership.

• Friday saw price attempt to reclaim that POC zone, but supply showed up quickly with a brief rejection into the close.

• The rising 10-week EMA (~$591) continues to act as the intermediary demand zone, and buyers defended it again last week. That’s the real reference level here.

• The daily structure is very noisy, but the weekly view cleans it up: this has been a sideways base-building phase since late August with obvious distribution taking place in this structure.

• Until we see sustained acceptance back above ~$597–$600, this remains a secondary asset class and a complete avoid in our eyes (just compare MDY and NDX breadth above).

Russell 2000

% over 20 EMA: 38.50% | % over 50 EMA: 39.22% | % over 200 EMA: 53.66%

• IWM remains messy and rotational on the daily, with money clearly being pulled toward megacap tech and earnings winners instead of small caps.

• Despite the chop, the weekly structure is still a rising intermediate-term uptrend, and every test of the rising 10-week EMA since early October has been bought.

• Price is holding right at the $244 POC, and Friday printed a green hammer off that demand pocket and we saw clear buyers defending this level again.

• We've now tested the $244–$240 demand zone multiple times, and each time it has led to sharp mean-reversion bounces. If this market is going to rotate back into second-tier risk pockets, this is where it typically starts.

• However, this remains not a high-conviction long zone for trend followers. Structure is intact, but relative strength is weak, and capital velocity is simply elsewhere.

FOCUSED STOCK
PL: A Leader Nobody Mentions

ADR%: 6.85% | Off 52-week high: -19.8% | Above 52-week low: +515.6%

• Exceptionally clean leadership behavior across daily & weekly charts with a near perfect momentum structure.

• The episodic pivot on Sept 8th (earnings beat +33.48% EPS / +11.17% revenue surprise) triggered a +112% move and this is what real institutional accumulation looks like.

• Since then, price has spent two weeks pulling back on very low relative volume, resetting while respecting trend which is exactly what we want from a leader.

• Weekly chart shows two red hammer candles at the rising 10-week EMA → consistent demand absorption at $12 with selling pressure drying up.

• Daily chart now tightening under $14 pivot resistance, forming a high-tight consolidation with rising 10 EMA curling beneath price.

• Volume trend is extremely constructive: declining during pullback, expanding on thrusts all of which confirms healthy accumulation and a reset in a new mark up/stage 2 rally.

FOCUSED GROUP
BOAT: Global Shipping Heating Up

• Global shipping continues to firm up technically, and BOAT is now showing clear evidence of a new uptrend emerging.

• Price reclaimed the $30.70 weekly Point of Control and has pushed cleanly above that prior supply shelf and that’s the level we wanted to see converted.

• Weekly chart shows a strong pivot breakout and immediate follow-through, with the rising 10-week EMA now supporting price all pointing towards structural leadership behavior.

• Daily timeframe confirms trend alignment: strong rally through the POC, shallow digestion, and buyers stepping in quickly on dips.

• This group has been a quiet outperformer as capital continues to rotate toward hard-asset, cash-flow sectors in parallel with metals/miners.

• Near-term setup continues to favor trend continuation higher as long as price holds above the $30.50–$31 support band.