MARKET ANALYSIS
Here’s All You Need To Know

• Markets are back under pressure this morning as crude reaccelerates sharply higher after hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran faded overnight.

• Brent is back above $106 and WTI is trading near $93, with the market again repricing the risk that the conflict extends further and keeps energy supply constrained.

• The key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping flows are still heavily disrupted. With roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG passing through that route, any prolonged restriction immediately feeds into inflation expectations and broader macro stress.

• This is once again reinforcing the same pattern we have seen all week: oil higher, yields firmer, equities lower. Futures are weaker this morning because the market still has no durable confidence that negotiations will actually produce an off-ramp.

• While Washington reportedly pushed a formal ceasefire framework through intermediaries, Tehran publicly rejected the idea of direct talks and instead signaled its own conditions, leaving markets stuck between diplomacy headlines and continued escalation.

• Trump’s latest rhetoric also shifted more aggressive again overnight, warning Iran to “get serious soon,” which the market interpreted as a reminder that headline risk remains extremely elevated over the next few sessions.

• There is also growing concern that Iran may continue using energy disruption as leverage. Reports that Tehran is considering tolls or tighter control over passage through Hormuz reinforce that oil remains its strongest negotiating tool.

• That matters because once crude moves decisively back into triple-digit territory, the market immediately begins reassessing inflation, policy expectations, and margin pressure across risk assets.

• The inflation side is already uncomfortable enough. Recent import price data came in hotter than expected, so higher energy here would add pressure into an environment where pricing is not yet fully under control.

• Globally, the macro spillover is becoming clearer. The OECD has already lowered growth expectations for Europe while warning that higher energy prices are likely to push inflation higher into next year.

S&P 500

24.05%: over 20 EMA | 27.23%: over 50 EMA | 48.11%: over 200 EMA

• SPY broadly delivered the move we expected yesterday, with price rejecting cleanly on the push into the declining 10-day EMA and failing to sustain any reclaim above short-term overhead resistance.

• The gap-fill move lower worked efficiently, with the rejection occurring around $660 on roughly 101% relative volume, which is important because it confirms that sellers were active again precisely where supply was expected to re-emerge.

• That $660 zone matters structurally. It had acted as support in early March and was also a well-defined demand area going back to October 2025, but that prior demand has now clearly flipped into supply — exactly the kind of character shift that tends to define corrective continuation.

• This morning we are seeing another gap lower as macro pressure intensifies, which keeps downside momentum intact rather than suggesting stabilization.

• From here, our existing downside target near $645 remains fully in play. That level aligns with a potential double-bottom retest of the rising 50-week EMA, which continues to be the most obvious higher-timeframe support zone beneath current price.

Nasdaq

23.76%: over 20 EMA | 26.76%: over 50 EMA | 44.55%: over 200 EMA

• QQQ also followed through exactly as expected, with price rejecting sharply at $591.90, which had previously been the key support shelf held between March 3 and March 20.

• That level has now undergone a clear character change: prior support has flipped into resistance, and yesterday’s rejection confirmed that former buyers are now supplying stock back into any reclaim attempt.

• This is where the visible range volume profile (VRVP) becomes especially useful. Around that zone, roughly 6 million shares traded green versus 4 million red, which at first glance looks constructive.

• But the key point is that those prior buyers are now trapped below their entry. Once price returns to that area, supply naturally increases because underwater participants use the move to exit.

• That is exactly why the reclaim failed.

• Pre-market, QQQ is now back below the 200-day EMA, and given the weakness developing again across growth, that level looks unlikely to be reclaimed quickly.

• Semiconductor names briefly bounced yesterday, but the move lacked durability and already looks to be reversing again this morning, reinforcing that growth remains fragile underneath the surface.

• From here, we continue to expect a move toward $578, which would bring price directly into the rising 50-week EMA — the next major technical support level.

S&P 400 Midcap

33.75%: over 20 EMA | 28.75%: over 50 EMA | 47.50%: over 200 EMA

• Mid-caps produced one of the clearest bull traps yesterday as the MDY opened with a strong 0.86% gap higher, pushed into $630, and then rejected directly from the obvious supply zone where the declining 50-day EMA also sits.

• From there, price sold off sharply back into the gap-fill zone near $617, which again confirmed that upside strength was not being accepted.

• Although price recovered enough to print a doji into the close, two things still stand out.

• First, the move failed directly beneath the 10-week EMA, which is visible clearly on the weekly chart and remains a major technical ceiling.

• Second, relative volume came in at only 96% of the 20-day average, which is simply too weak for what would need to be a genuine reversal if buyers were trying to establish a durable low.

• If this were the start of a true turn higher, you would normally expect materially stronger participation.

• Instead, the broader structure still resembles a head-and-shoulders top on the weekly timeframe, and internal participation remains extremely poor outside of a very narrow group of energy-linked names.

• From our perspective, this still argues for another leg lower by the end of the week rather than evidence of a completed bottom.

Russell 2000

39.68%: over 20 EMA | 30.39%: over 50 EMA | 48.09%: over 200 EMA

• Small caps also failed their reclaim attempt yesterday, rejecting directly at the 10-week and 20-week EMA cluster on exactly 100% relative volume.

• Structurally, IWM is showing the same type of setup we expect MDY to continue developing — a weak recovery that fails into overhead supply before rolling lower again.

• Pre-market, price is already gapping back down toward $248, which puts it back below the 10-day EMA that had briefly been reclaimed.

• That loss of short-term support suggests the next downside impulse may already be starting.

• The most likely next move is a push toward $243, where the 200-day EMA becomes the next major technical target.

• From yesterday’s close, that represents roughly $4 downside, which is almost exactly 2 full ADRs, given current ADR at 2.03%.

• In practical terms, small caps remain one of the cleaner downside structures if broader weakness persists through today’s session (which it almost certainly will).

FOCUSED GROUP
BOAT: Shipping Holding Strong

• BOAT continues to hold up exceptionally well versus the broader market and remains one of the clearest relative strength groups right now.

• Since breaking out in January 2026, price has held above the prior base with strong underlying accumulation, and what we are now seeing is a tight volatility contraction directly beneath resistance.

• The key ceiling remains $41.20, where supply has repeatedly capped upside, but importantly price is compressing.

• The structure is constructive: higher lows, tighter daily ranges, declining relative volume, all of which suggest normal digestion rather than distribution.

• In other words, this is beginning to resemble a tight flag, with both price and turnover contracting after a strong breakout leg.

• The reason BOAT is staying firm despite oil surging is that shipping equities are currently trading the earnings shock from freight dislocation rather than broader macro demand concerns.

• Since the Gulf disruption began, tanker pricing has moved sharply higher:

  • Baltic Dirty Tanker Index +49%

  • Baltic Clean Tanker Index +78%

  • VLCC Middle East–China rates above $200,000/day

• That is a major near-term cash flow repricing for listed shippers.

• The launch of a new Gulf of Oman freight benchmark today also confirms that normal Gulf pricing is no longer representative — the market is actively repricing a structurally disrupted shipping route.

• Even if fewer barrels move through Hormuz, each available vessel earns materially more because insurance costs, rerouting, delays, and vessel scarcity tighten supply immediately.

• That is why BOAT remains bid: for now, equity markets are discounting freight-rate upside first, while recession risk only matters later if disruption becomes prolonged.